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Post by Bob Liu on Sept 12, 2021 23:51:32 GMT -6
Welcome to a new round (2021-2022) of electricity plans switching.
Strategies used here:
* Switch to short-term plans.
* “Reserve” it low, to use it high.
Why short term plans? They are cheaper except in the summer months. They have “patterns” that are not found in long-term (12+ months) plans. We can plan our switches with knowing patterns.
What is this “reservation”? Electricity providers let us pick a switch date, some time in the future. It could be from several weeks to 6 months from now. Some even “forgot” to set their limit. :) We “reserve” a plan when the rate is low in winter, and start it when the rate is high in summer.
According to the last time “pattern”, the best time to “reserve” a good-rate short-term plan was from mid-Dec to mid-Jan. (Please see attached chart.)
 (Click to Enlarge)
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Post by Bob Liu on Sept 13, 2021 0:04:37 GMT -6
2021-2022: What I’ve done, and what I'm going to do.
My current plan:
* “reserved” on 12/30/2020, to start on 3/30/2021 (3 months later).
* a 6-month plan, from 3/30/2021 to 9/30/2021.
It’ll expire on 09/30/2021. I anticipate taking a 3-month plan to get to around mid-Dec to mid-Jan (best time to “reserve” a good plan for next summer). I’ll use the 14-day-no-penalty rule to adjust my contract length.
14-day-no-penalty - “The residential customer can switch without incurring an early termination charge if the switch is no earlier than 14 days before the contract expiration date provided in the notice.” www.puc.texas.gov/consumer/facts/faq/electricity.aspx
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Post by Bob Liu on Sept 17, 2021 18:16:55 GMT -6
The pattern is changing!
Last year this time, the rate was below 3 ¢/kWh, and kept lowering.
This week we see the rate above 5 ¢/kWh, and is higher than last week.
We need more time to really know where this is going.
So I can only suggest a rare “Month to Month” plan for this week of 9/17/2021.
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Post by Jonathan S. on Sept 27, 2021 10:35:16 GMT -6
Hi Bob, I've had a successful year in 2021 so far following your instructions. In February I secured a great plan for late winter, and at the same time, I secured a good plan for the summer using the book-ahead option (saved a TON versus had I switched in July). Now I need to change again this week (before Oct 2) but the 3-month options are pretty terrible. I suppose your recommendation is the best option, I'll hop on a Month-to-Month for 1 month and hope for rates to come down in late October.
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Post by Bob Liu on Sept 27, 2021 12:36:36 GMT -6
Right now it doesn’t look good. :) They seem to be getting out of the low-rate 3/4-month market. They found out that they can’t trick people like us?! :)
I need to switch before 9/30. I’m considering this one, but I’m having problems with its online sign-up (I’m emailing its customer service):
CleanSky - Affordable Wind 3
rates.cleanskyenergy.com:8443/rates/DownloadDoc?path=9dd903f0-0d71-4260-ba44-0cb5ae040385.html&id_plan=74567
Energy Charge: 6.7 ¢/kWh
Cancellation Fee: $0
We need time to know what they’re going to do next. Right now is the start of the low season. Rates won’t affect much. The prime target is the summer months. We’ll see.
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Post by Bob Liu on Sept 28, 2021 14:48:16 GMT -6
As of 9/28/2021 Tuesday, CleanSky email replied,
"Please note at this time. We are unable to process any enrollments due to a system update."
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Post by Bob Liu on Sept 29, 2021 14:51:36 GMT -6
I switched to the Month-to-Month Reliant Power On Flex plan on 9/30/2021.
www.reliant.com/defl/R1F00125555621A.pdf
Base Charge: $5.00 per billing cycle
Energy Charge: 6.3746¢ per kWh
There is no clear “great” choice at the moment. :)
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Post by Bob Liu on Sept 30, 2021 17:01:35 GMT -6
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Post by hart4plano on Oct 13, 2021 11:15:38 GMT -6
Hey Bob, I was recently asked what was causing high rates. I had seen your post on the subject, and that inspired me to do a deeper dive (hoping to dispel some likely unfounded speculation). Here's what I posted on ND: "The price we pay for electricity is highly correlated to the cost of natural gas, which is affected by worldwide supply and demand. In 2021 natural gas prices were driven up by increased export demand and domestic consumption. From recent peaks, forecasts through the end of 2022 expect a steady decline in costs, extending downward towards 2019 levels, as the supply is expected to outpace demand. For comparison, be aware that rates for 2019 were relatively in the normal range, whereas the rates in 2020 were significantly lower than normal, and we should not expect rates to be that low. Given the above, plus the recent decrease of 5% in the past week, we can expect rates to be steady or decline through December, and our best bet may be to avoid contracts longer than 12 months. All of the above is, if course, subject to change as more info becomes available and reflects my current understanding of the markets based on published forecasts." References: www.naturalgasintel.com/u-s-natural-gas-prices-expected-to-rise-in-2021-2022-on-growing-exports/www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/ |
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jonathan
Member
Posts: 15
Member is Online
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Post by jonathan on Oct 17, 2021 9:57:39 GMT -6
Hi Bob, I'm curious what your next step will be. Seems like 3-month plans are going the wrong direction. I think we're both on a 1-month plan that expires in a couple of weeks.
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Post by Bob Liu on Oct 17, 2021 11:06:41 GMT -6
Hi hart4plano,
Sorry that I missed your post. ProBoards did not send me an email notice about your post. So I didn’t read yours until I got an email notice from jonathan’s.
Thanks for the information. We’ll see. :)
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Post by Bob Liu on Oct 17, 2021 11:15:17 GMT -6
Hi jonathan,
I’m not sure what my next step will be. :) I have no good suggestions.
The current rates are not much different to our home, due to our low electricity usage during this time of year. I’ll wait until the last several days to make a switch decision.
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Post by Bob Liu on Oct 28, 2021 10:54:34 GMT -6
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Post by Bob Liu on Nov 6, 2021 11:44:40 GMT -6
Today, 11/06/2021 Saturday, about one week later,
thanks to $0 cancellation fee, I switched again. :)
This time it’s:
Just - Autopay PTC Plan - 3
webs.justenergydeals.com/Generate_Docs/Generate_EflLinks.aspx?RID=5w3QayrWYak=&RCID=nnkoyMHsHd8=&L=6f+Ch9flI7k=
Energy Charge: 6 ¢/kWh
This plan is done online, and without
“One-time terrapass set up and carbon offset purchase: $14.99.”
Compare with that Just plan:
(14.99/3) / (0.06-0.054) = 833 (kWh)
I’m better off if I use less than 833 kWh/month.
I had used Just before.
There’s one special change in its online enrollment.
(Please see the photo.)
(Click on to enlarge)
I'm doing it on 11/6, Saturday.
Its “Standard” switch can take 2-5 days.
Its “Select a Date”, is starting from 11/12, next Friday.
That is 5 business days later.
So, I chose the “Standard” switch.
I’ll update WHEN it actually starts the switch.
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Post by Bob Liu on Nov 12, 2021 14:21:31 GMT -6
My Just Energy started on 11/9/2021,
2 business days later after enrollment with its “Standard” switch.
It’ll end on 2/9/2022.
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jonathan
Member
Posts: 15
Member is Online
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Post by jonathan on Nov 12, 2021 18:56:57 GMT -6
Hi Bob, do you not think rates will drop more in the coming month? At the end of last month, I see you switched to a 3-month plan but I switched to another 1-month plan with the assumption (hope?!) that rates will drop soon. Am I wrong?
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Post by Bob Liu on Nov 26, 2021 19:04:03 GMT -6
Sorry, jonathan, that I didn’t get your message from this forum’s notice. I’ll check this post more frequently in the future, at least once a week.
I can only project the future according to the past patterns. Due to the “nature gas price”, we’re out of the normal pattern. To answer your question - I don’t know. : )
My biggest concern is if we can get good rate plans for the coming summer. And I don’t know the answer to that either. : )
I was guessing that the rates won’t come down sharply in one month. So I switched to a 3 months plan with a “better” rate. That’s a “guess”. I still keep myself in the game, IF the “good rate plans for summer” are here. I think right now any 1, 3 or 4 months plan will still keep us in the game.
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Post by Bob Liu on Dec 10, 2021 18:36:03 GMT -6
Hooray! Short-term rates are dropping, and dropping fast.
If you’re still in the game, the “hunt” is on.
Let’s see how low it can go, this time around.
Last year, it was 6-month plan - flat rate 6.12 ¢/kWh
(Switch date: up to 3 months from now)
(Click to Enlarge)
This year, this is our “likely” target, though it’s still very high now:
Frontier Power 6 - flat rate 9.93 ¢/kWh
(Switch date: up to 3 months from now)
eflviewer.frontierutilities.com/eflviewer.aspx?lang=EN&prodcode=FPOW6&tdspcode=ONCOR_ELEC
Let’s see how low it can go, this time around.
I'll be watching it closely. : )
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Post by Bob Liu on Dec 17, 2021 19:23:41 GMT -6
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Post by Bob Liu on Dec 24, 2021 20:53:06 GMT -6
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Post by Bob Liu on Dec 31, 2021 18:44:56 GMT -6
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Post by Bob Liu on Jan 1, 2022 11:00:16 GMT -6
Same time last year, it was 6.12 ¢/kWh.
This year now is 9.43 ¢/kWh, that's a 54% rate increase.
I want to wait a while to see if it’ll go down more.
It’s a gamble. : )
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Post by Bob Liu on Jan 2, 2022 19:11:43 GMT -6
Comparing Oncor’s change from 2021 to 2022:
As of 01/01/2021,
Oncor’s Delivery Charges: $3.42 /mon + 3.922 ¢/kWh
As of 01/02/2022,
Oncor’s Delivery Charges: $3.42 /mon + 4.1543 ¢/kWh
It’s only a 6% increase.
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Post by Bob Liu on Jan 19, 2022 23:24:39 GMT -6
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Post by Bob Liu on Jan 21, 2022 19:09:14 GMT -6
This week, Frontier Power 5 lowered to
Flat Rate (Energy+Delivery): 8.93 ¢/kWh.
Same time last year was 6.43 ¢/kWh.
That's a 39% (3 weeks ago, it’s a 54%) increase this year.
This year vs last year increase-percentage is down.
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Post by Bob Liu on Jan 31, 2022 23:41:12 GMT -6
As of 1/31/2022 Monday, I checked PTC.
All the short term plans were practically gone. : )
This is my “reasonable” guess.
They are anticipating the coming hard freeze of the week.
It’s a guess, which means I could be wrong.
We’ll see.
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Post by Bob Liu on Jan 31, 2022 23:43:34 GMT -6
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Post by Bob Liu on Feb 2, 2022 17:15:59 GMT -6
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Post by Bob Liu on Feb 17, 2022 15:15:43 GMT -6
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Post by Bob Liu on Mar 4, 2022 20:44:10 GMT -6
New Oncor’s Delivery Charges, updated on 3/1/2022:
$3.42 /mon + 3.8907 ¢/kWh (last week was 4.1543)
Last year was 3.4928 ¢/kWh, about 11% increase this year.
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